…there’s only one poll that counts…
We are totally bombarded with polls these days. New forms of communication mean that pollsters have even more ways to extract our opinions. And I’m not just talking about political opinion polls. Every time you go on a news website you get asked your opinion. Often on the most trivial of matters – what do you think of the name of Nicole Kidman’s baby? Who is the best looking celebrity? Should Conrad Smith play centre? I’m sure there are some individuals, who think these matters are important, but I’ll let you in on a little secret – they’re not.
The things that are important should be that your income is sufficient to support you and your family through life. That you feel secure in your own home. That the economy of this country is heading in the right direction. That you have health and happiness in life. These things are important. The All Blacks will always have a great centre whether you’re asked for your opinion or not!
The sheer volume of polls these days must give rise to opinion fatigue. Do people take the time to give honest answers? Can we trust the information the polls give us? In short, the answer is no.
Online polls are uncontrolled and open to abuse. There is nothing scientific about their results. They are frivolous, simply entertainment designed to attract viewers or readers. Even the more serious polls, e.g. the main political polls in this country, have to be taken with a grain - or large handful - of salt. We don’t know what questions many of the pollsters ask. Just think for a moment the difference between “thinking about a political party, which would get your party vote if an election were held?” and “which political party do you support?”
The results are usually wildly divergent across the polls. Just this past weekend one poll had New Zealand First on 2.6% while another had us on 6.5%. And all too often these polls are interpreted in a way that best promotes a news angle rather than just reporting trends. Let me give you a couple examples:
The One News poll this past weekend described New Zealand First as in “deep trouble” – what they failed to mention was that we’d gone up since their previous poll! How’s that for selective reporting?
Then we had a Dominion Post story on Monday purporting to show what voters think about New Zealand First as a coalition partner. But no information was given about the number of people polled, there was no comparison with other possible coalition parties and there was no comparison to earlier polls. So what were we left with? Well, the information showed that over a third of this country’s voters believe New Zealand First should be the coalition partner in the next government with either Labour or National. That’s right, over a third of all voters. But that’s not the story the Dominion Post wanted to spin.
I think it was Warren Buffett who said something like, “A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought”.
That’s why we say there’s ever only one poll that truly matters – on Election Day!
August 20th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
I agree. There are even polls on polls! Polls from my perspective, don’t mean a heck of a lot in regards to politics. It’s on the day of voting that counts. Pre-election polls don’t sway my decision on voting either. The principle characteristic of a person running for election does, as well as their attitude, and stance on certain policies. Polls are and has been a form of communication in today’s world, where results are instant. Broadcasters are kept up to date with their audiences view on particular issues, like the ones you’ve mentioned.
Polls in general, are relevant to the particular website you’re visiting as well. I wouldn’t visit a celebrity polling website to submit my vote/opinion on income sufficiency or family support. I recall Fran O’Sullivan from the New Zealand Herald saying in a radio interview: “Nearly half of the voters don’t trust Winston Peters” - personally I don’t know where she gets her apparent facts from. Never-the-less, the New Zealand Herald as a publication is probably the only largest, trusted national newspaper that I know of in New Zealand - so can we really dispute poll results that they claim, come from its readers?
Your comment “The All Blacks will always have a great centre whether you’re asked for your opinion or not!”. Personally I have moved on from claiming the All Blacks as the nations team. In previous years, I took a huge nationalist stance on sporting teams in New Zealand, but we’re a diverse country that cater to a plethora of nationalities - and hence, recognising a variety of other sports, where your team or the team you’re support doesn’t lose all the time.
Personally, my opinions and my ability to voice them never fails. If given any opportunity, I’d be right there telling you what I think. Whenever I have given my opinion, I base my answers purely on experience. So, yes, an open and honest answer is what you’ll get. Online polls are subject to manipulation, but so are election polls. Nothing is safe.
Quote: “…this website has been set up so we can talk directly…”. Take advantage of the online resources at your disposal. WordPress and the amount of “free” tools it provides as a blogging tool, also allows you to add-on additional features to your website like polls, forums and tools that can assist you in determining for sure, what the visitors to this website truly think about any issues. You’d be foolish not to.
Furthermore, in regards to where I think NZ First stand, I’ll comment on this directly. I believe NZ First will be in government in the next election campaign.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:17 am
Shoot the messenger.
I guess the preferred PM polls are wrong, too? Perhaps people really want “Roger Douglas” as most preferred, but for some reason, they say “Winston Peters” instead?
August 21st, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I saw a poll today asking which NZ medal at the Olympics was the most valuable. How stupid! The NZ athletes who have won medals should be extremely proud of themselves and we should be proud of them all - equally. I agree with you Winston. I think election day is a bit like the Olympics….. every event leading up to it doesn’t matter. Only the result on the day.
August 21st, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Am I wrong in saying, that the historically most innovative election issue this year - introducing Ownership Democracy through allocating the NZ Super Fund to Personal Accounts as an all-inclusive initial step - has not been subjected to public scrutiny yet - and cannot fail to have a positive polls result in favor of the party advocating it?
August 21st, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Well Winston, you won’t have to wait much longer.
will you
August 21st, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Well said Winston, i couldn’t agree with you more. It’s getting tiring watching the news and the like just to have them pull out these lame polls.
Makes you wonder whether some flunkie at TVNZ is paid to come up with NZ First polls.
For example: “OK people, what poll can we use this week to make NZ First look stupid?”
The pathetic thing is that the media must firmly believe the majority of NZders are gullable to keep using them all the time.
The funniest ones are when they go to the streets to ask unsuspecting passersby to comment on the latest political polls.
One moment you’re walking down Queen street the next you got a big fat mic in your face while some bald headed journalist asks you a totally irrelevant question.
August 22nd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Aaron: polling is useful and generally as accurate as the sample set and time difference to the actual election allows - but the problem is that individual polls usually have such a high margin of error after these factors, that they don’t mean much on their own.
Case in point: last election, the “poll of poll of polls”, run by the same dude who’s now at 08 wire, was the only one to accurately call the final result down to the last seat.
August 22nd, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Yes poles are great but how come a recent pole in Tauranga had only National, Labour, and New Zealand First? it didn’t show where the other parties were:
Kiwi,Greens,Destiny and the Canary Party. It just happened at the last election that Destiny poled about the same number of votes that NZ First needed to take the seat. ask Jim Bolger about poles.
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:33 pm
By the way politics have poles (greased)
August 23rd, 2008 at 8:30 pm
good post dude
August 28th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Well one has to wonder what Rodney Hyde’s agenda is in regards to his very public crusade against Winston.
Could it be that he needs to get rid of the New Zealand First Party to put the Act party back in the lime light before the election’s???-is that the only way for him to ensure that his party will pick up one or more seats at the elections how sad is that. I don’t believe for one moment
that what he’s doing is for the benefit of the public, he has a hidden agenda and one has to wonder who else is involved in this sorry saga and so what if Winston is innocent of what he’s been accused of what do they care so long as he gets what he is after
Now lets take a look at National John Key’s. Of course he would want to back the Act Party. At this stage he probably thinks his christmas’s has arrived all at once with all the bad publicity against Winston. Because lets face it he must know by now given the way the National Party treated Winston in the past if the casting vote for the next govrnment was left up t New Zealand First there would be no garantee that they would back National. Come to think of it would you???? given the circumsance’s.
August 28th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Well one has to wonder what Rodney Hyde’s agenda is in regards to his very public crusade against Winston.
Could it be that he needs to get rid of the New Zealand First Party to put the Act party back in the lime light before the election’s???-is that the only way for him to ensure that his party will pick up one or more seats at the elections how sad is that. I don’t believe for one moment
that what he’s doing is for the benefit of the public, he has a hidden agenda and one has to wonder who else is involved in this sorry saga and so what if Winston is innocent of what he’s been accused of what do they care so long as he gets what he is after
Now lets take a look at National John Key’s. Of course he would want to back the Act Party. At this stage he probably thinks his christmas’s has arrived all at once with all the bad publicity against Winston. Because lets face it he must know by now given the way the National Party treated Winston in the past if the casting vote for the next govrnment was left up t New Zealand First there would be no garantee that they would back National. Come to think of it would you???? given the circumsance’s.
I am a Larbour supporter always have been and always will be. I am proud of the way Helen Clark has stood by Winston even under pressure from the Act and Natinal Partie’s to sack him. What of the other partie’s the media don’t seem to concerned about what they have to say.
I myself support Winston I believe that he is honest and has worked hard at the job he has been entrusted by Helen Clark to do.